基于指标变权重复合云模型的岩质边坡稳定性评价初探

近年来，云模型评价方法在边坡的稳定性评价中得到了较深入的应用。但目前评价指标的权重多为某一精确值，没有考虑指标权重的不确定性和模糊性。为解决这一问题，尝试用指标变权重云模型表示各指标的权重，并引入权重范围系数以调整指标的权重变化幅度。参照《水电水利边坡工程地质勘察技术规程》和《地质灾害调查技术要求》对评价指标进行选取。参考行业规范、学者们的研究经验以及福建省的实际情况，采用等间距法对各评价指标相应的稳定分级区间进行划分。根据上述方法在MATLAB程序中编写算法，得到了基于指标变权重的复合云模型，并开发了相应的应用程序。通过对福建省连江县黄岐镇边坡的分析，认为该边坡总体处于基本稳定状态，但仍存在转化为不稳定的可能性。根据勘察报告，该坡段于2016年6月17日曾因强降雨发生崩塌，初步验证了本方法的分析结果。

A preliminary study on evaluation of rock slope stability based on index variable weight compound cloud model

In recent years, cloud model evaluation methods has been deeply applied in slope stability evaluation. However, the current evaluation index weight was a precise value, which has not take uncertainty and ambiguity of the index weight into consideration. In order to solve this problem, the paper tried to using the index variable weight cloud model, and introduced the weight range coefficient to adjust the change range of the index. The evaluation indexes were selected by referring to "Technical Regulations for Hydropower and Water Conservancy Slope Engineering Geological Survey" and "Technical Requirements for Geological Hazard Survey". With reference to industry standards, the research experience of scholars and the actual situation in Fujian Province, the equidistant method was used to divide the stable grading intervals of each evaluation index. According to the above method, the algorithm was developed in the MATLAB program. The compound cloud model based on the variable weight of the index and the corresponding application program were developed. Based on the analysis of the slope of Huangqi Town, Lianjiang County, Fujian Province, it was believed that the slope was generally stable, but there still has the possibility of turning into instability. According to the survey report, the slope section collapsed due to heavy rainfall on June 17, 2016, which preliminarily verified the analysis results of this method.