基于小波变换的郑州降雨量与太阳黑子活动关系分析

为探究太阳黑子活动与地区降雨量的关联性，采用连续小波变换方法，分析了1980年以来郑州地区(新郑站点)降雨量和太阳黑子数的数据变化，并对不同时段两者的相关性进行研究；进一步对两者进行交叉小波变换和小波相干谱分析，并根据两者关系通过太阳黑子数观测值对降雨量进行预测。结果表明：(1)不同时段降雨量和太阳黑子数的相关性存在正负差异的现象。降雨量的第一主周期尺度是21 a,在此主周期尺度下得到14 a主周期；太阳黑子数的第一主周期尺度是16 a,在此主周期尺度下得到11 a主周期(与经验值相符)。降雨量与太阳黑子数的主周期相差了3 a,因此导致两者的相关性在不同时段存在正负差异。(2)降雨量与太阳黑子数在1992—2008年的8～12 a时间尺度上关联性显著，且降雨量比太阳黑子数存在规律性的时间滞后，两者在2～4 a和7～10 a的时间尺度上关联性较好；降雨量比太阳黑子数分别在1991—2004年和2006—2013年这两个时间段上呈现规律性的滞后，两者在其他时间段的各时间尺度上关联性不明显。(3)根据延迟年数经验公式，由太阳黑子数观测值对降雨量进行预测，最近的降雨量峰年在2022年附近，与2...

Relationship Between Rainfall and Sunspot Activity Cycle in Zhengzhou Based on Wavelet Analysis

In order to study the correlation-ship of sunspot activity and regional rainfall, we used the continuous wavelet transform method to study the precipitation data of Zhengzhou city (Xinzheng station) since 1980 and the variation of the number of sunspots, and studied the correlation between the two in different periods. Further, rainfall and sunspots were proceed by cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence spectrum analysis. The rainfall was predicted by sunspots observation number according to the relationship between the two. The results show that there are positive and negative differences in the correlation between the two in different periods. The first main rainfall period scale is a 21-year one, with a 14-year period obtained under this main period scale. Similarly, the first main sunspot period scale is a 16-year one, with a 11-year period obtained under this main period scale, consistent with experience value. The three extra year of rainfall (than sunspots) can explain the positive and negative differences in the curve correlation at different periods. The correlation between rainfall and sunspots is significant on an 8 to 12 year timescale (1992 to 2008) with regular time lag. The rainfall vs. sunspot activity correlation is important on the timescale of 2-4 a and 7-10 a, with regular lag during 1991-2004 and 2006-2013, respectively. There is no obvious correlation between the two in other time scales. Correlation analysis showed that according to the empirical formula for the time delay, rainfall can be predicted from sunspot observations. The results show that the latest peak rainfall is near 2022, close to the 2021 “7·20 heavy rain” in Zhengzhou. The next rainfall valley year is likely around 2028, and the precipita-tion fluctuation or decrease may be greater than before.