气候变暖对河南省蚱蝉始鸣期的影响

利用河南省驻马店、沈丘和太康3个农业气象观测站1990-2004年的蚱蝉物候观测资料和气象资料，研究了气候变暖对蚱蝉始鸣期的影响。结果表明：在气温升高的气候背景下，蚱蝉始鸣期呈提前趋势；3-6月平均气温对蚱蝉始鸣期有显著的影响，始鸣期与1月1日至平均始鸣期期间＞5℃有效积温关系最为密切。用积温法以5℃为发育起点温度，＞5℃初日为起始日期对各站蚱蝉始鸣期进行模拟和预报，其效果优于平均法。

Influence of Climate Warming on the First Song Date of Cicadas in Henan Province

By using the climate and cicada (Cryptotympana atrata) phenological data in Zhumadian, Shenqiu and Taikang Prefectures of Henan Province in 1990-2004, the impact of climate warming on the first song date of cicadas was analyzed. The results show that the first song date of cicadas has advanced at each of the three sites under the climate warming. The mean temperature over March-June had a marked impact on the first song date of cicadas which was closely related to the effective accumulated temperature above 5℃ from Jan. 1 to the average first song date. The first song date of cicadas in each of the three sites was simulated and predicted using accumulated temperature method with 5℃ as the developmental threshold temperature and the first day when the daily mean temperature was above 5℃ as the start date. This method is superior to the average date method. However, the accuracy of the effective accumulated temperature method depends on the stability of effective accumulated temperatures.