江淮流域大洪水的发生规律探讨

对江淮流域的大洪水进行分析 ,得出如下三点新的认识 :(1)在太阳黑子活动的峰谷年前后 ,江淮流域一般容易出现大洪水 ;(2 )在太阳黑子活动的磁周期转变年前后 ,江淮流域容易出现大洪水 ,甚至是特大洪水 ;(3)在太阳黑子活动磁周期转变年前后的厄尔尼诺同年或次年 ,江淮流域更容易出现大洪水 ,甚至是特大洪水。这些认识可以为长期及超长期的洪水预报提供一定的理论依据。

On the Arising Law of the Big Flood in the Jianghuai Valley

According to the analysis of the big floods in the Jianghuai Valley, three new conclusions are given as follows:(1)there is generally the big flood in the Jianghuai Valley around the peak valley year of sunspot activity; (2)there is probably the big or huge flood in the Jianghuai Valley around the year of magnetic cycle transformation of sunspot activity; (3)there is more probably the big or huge flood in the Jianghuai Valley in the same or next year of El Nino around the year of magnetic cycle transformation of sunspot activity. These conclusions can provide certain theoretical basis for the flood forecast of long or over long term.