Stochastic groundwater flow analysis in the presence of trends in heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields

Due to changes in lithostatic pressure, differential fracturing across bedding planes and irregularities in depositional environments, hydraulic conductivity exhibits heterogeneities and trends at various spatial scales. Using spectral theory, we have examined the effect of trends in hydraulic conductivity on (1) the solution of the mean equation for hydraulic head, (2) the covariance of hydraulic head, (3) the cross-covariances of hydraulic head and log-hydraulic conductivity perturbations and their gradients, and (4) the effective hydraulic conductivity. It is shown that the field of hydraulic head is sensitive to the presence of trends in ways that cannot be predicted by the classical analysis based on stationary hydraulic conductivity fields. The controlling variables for the second moments of hydraulic head are the mean hydraulic gradient, the correlation scale of log-hydraulic conductivity and its variance, and the slope of the trend in log-hydraulic conductivity. The mean hydraulic gradient introduces complications in the analysis since it is, in general, spatially variable. In this respect, our results are approximate, yet indicative of the true role of spatially variable patterns of log-hydraulic conductivity on groundwater flow systems.