A practice‐oriented estimation of the failure probability of building structures

In the presented practice‐oriented probabilistic approach for the seismic performance assessment of building structures, the SAC‐FEMA method, which is a part of the broader PEER probabilistic framework and permits probability assessment in closed form, is combined with the pushover‐based N2 method. The most demanding part of the PEER probabilistic framework, that is incremental dynamic analysis, is replaced by the much simpler N2 method, which requires considerably less input data and much less computational time, but which can, nevertheless, often provide: acceptable estimates for the mean values of the structural response. Using some additional simplifying assumptions that are consistent with seismic code procedures, an explicit equation for a quick estimation of the annual probability of “failure” (i.e. the probability of exceeding the near collapse limit state) of a structure can be derived, which is appropriate for practical applications, provided that predetermined default values for the dispersion measures are available. In the paper, this simplified approach is summarized and applied to the estimation of the “failure” probability of reinforced concrete frame buildings representing both old structures, not designed for earthquake resistance, and new structures designed according to Eurocode 8. The results of the analyses indicate a high probability of the “failure” of buildings, which have not been designed for seismic loads. For a building designed according to a modern code, the conservatively determined probability of “failure” is about 30 times less but still significant (about 1% over the lifetime of the structure). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.