Simulation of Time Series of Concentration Fluctuations in Atmospheric Dispersion Using a Correlation-distortion Technique |
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Authors: | Andrew R Jones David J Thomson |
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Institution: | (1) Hadley Centre, Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom |
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Abstract: | Short-duration fluctuations in the concentration of airborne substances can be important in a variety of atmospheric dispersion
problems, especially when assessing the risks posed by harmful materials. This paper discusses a simulation technique for
generating individual realisations of fluctuating concentration time series in dispersing plumes based on target probability
distributions and spectral functions. The scheme uses a correlation-distortion approach to simulate these time series. Gaussian
processes with modified spectral characteristics are generated and then transformed to yield non-Gaussian processes with the
desired spectral characteristics. The simulation scheme is initially developed for a single receptor, and is then extended
to model pairs of correlated time series at two receptors. In fact, the modelling technique can be generalised to an arbitrary
number of receptors and this provides, in principal, an approach that is applicable to a wide class of similar problems (such
as the modelling of instantaneous puff releases or the response of line-of-sight detection systems). The simulation technique
is illustrated using observations made during recent field experiments, conducted both in the United Kingdom and in the U.S.A.,
investigating the short-range dispersion of a passive tracer. |
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Keywords: | Atmospheric dispersion Concentration fluctuations Correlation-distortion Time-series simulation |
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