郯庐带中南段及邻区井水位同震响应特征

分析郯庐带中南段与其邻区井水位对汶川8．0级与日本9．0级地震的同震响应特征，指出汶川地震时同震阶升井集中出现在安徽地区，之后该区发生Ms3．8中等地震的事实，指出日本地震后该区无一口同震阶升井，由此推测，未来1—2年内郯庐带中南段发生中等以上地震的可能性不大。

The water level coseismal effect characteristics and its significance in earthquake prediction of mid-south segment and its adjacent area of Tanlu fault belt

In this paper, the well water level coseismic response characteristics and its mechanical signicance is briefly introduced. The the possibility of using coseismic step uplift area to judge the future seismic risk regions is discussed. On this basis, the coseismic variation characteristics on the water level of mid-south segment and its adjacent area of Tanlu fault belf to the Wenchuan M 8.0 earthquake and Japan M 9.0 earthquake are analyzed. It is pointed out that the coseismic step shafts appeared mainly in Anhui area during the Wenchuan earth- quake, and afterwards a moderate earthquake of Ms 3.8 occurred in this area. The analysis result further pointed out that there is no coseismic step shaft after the Japan earthquake, there for the risk of occurring moderate earthquakes is not obvious in the next one or two years.