荒漠绿洲PRED系统特征与可持续发展定量研究

荒漠绿洲PRED系统是一个相当脆弱的系统，自然灾害频繁、水分失衡导致的生态风险大。在分析其特征的基础上，建立了衡量可持续发展的指标体系并运用层次分析法得出了这些因子对绿洲PRED系统可持续发展的权值，影响最大的前三位因子是：人均水资源量、绿洲化面积、人口素质、其权值分别为0.124、0.077、0.062。计算了河西走廊20个县（市、区）的SDI，排在最前面的依次是：萧北蒙古族自治县、嘉峪关市和玉门市、金川区，其SDI分别为0.437、0.406、0.405，排在最后面的依次是：古浪县、民勤县、天祝藏族自治县，其SDI分别为0.150、0.213、0.217。分析了这种格局产生的原因并提出了相应对策。

Characteristics of the Oasis PRED System and Quantitative Study on Its Sustainable Development

The oasis Population, Resource, Environment and Development (PRED) system has the same charac-ter as the other regional PRED system, it is a nonlinear complicated huge system, also it is distinctive character-istic by big expanding spatiality, high frequency of natural disaster, and rich in illumination and heat quantityresources, and so on. But it is a very fragility ecosystem.By using the method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP method), the front 3 factors among 25 factors forthe sustainable development of oasis PRED system are per capita water resources(weighting value 0. l24), areaof dedesertification(0. 077), education degree of population(0. 062). The comprehensive states and potential ofsociety, economy, population, resources and environment of 20 counties(or city, district) in Hexi corridor werecalculated and analyzed by the sustainable development index, and expressed by a map visually, the spatial dis-tribution characteristics are described according to the sustainable development index (SDI) and the map. Thefront 4 counties were Mongo1ian Autonomous County of Subei (SDI=0.437), Jiayuguan City and Yumen City(SDI = 0.406), Jinchuan District (SDI = 0.405). Sustainable using of water resource is the basis for the socialand economic sustainable deve1opment. Per capita water resources quantity of Mongolian Autonomous County ofSubei is maximum in 20 counties. At the back 3 counties were Gulang County (SDI = 0.l50), Minqin County(SDI = 0.2l3), Tibetan Autonomous County of Tianzhu (SDI = 0.2l7). For the sustainable development ofoasis, the optimum ratio among agriculture, industry, and the third estate (service trades, tourist trade, infor-mation etc. ) is very importance, the causes are ana1yzed and some answers to the question are given.