单站气温信息传递及其可预报性研究

采用信息传递量作为度量气候可预报性的指标，分别讨论了我国各大气候区的１０个代表测站平均气温的可预报性。数值计算表明，各种不同时间尺度信息传递量具有不同的衰减特征，其差异反映出实际气候背景的差异，信息传递量较好地代表了可预报性特征。由于实测的信息衰减与模式信息衰减具有一致性，因此，信息传递可作为检验模式可预报性的有益工具。

STUDY OF TEMPERATURE INFORMATION TRANSMISSION AND ITS PREDICTABILITY FOR SINGLE STATION OF CHINA

The predictability of mean temperature is investigated for ten stations located, separately, in all climatic regions of the country in terms of information transmission as the measure of climatic predictability. Evidence suggests that the transmission at a range of scales (pentad, decade, month and year) displays attenuation features of their own in relation to the climatic background. As such, the temperature information transmission represents better the predictability. The consistent attenuation in the measured and model yielded temperature information allows to use the transmission as a useful means for testing the predictability dealt with by a model.