优选因子场预报方法的研究

现行的场预报方法,一般是根据预报量之间的统计关系,进行场分解,而后用经验正交函数建立预报方程,但却很少考虑到外界因子的作用。本文尝试把影响因于引入经验正交预报方法中。在这种优选因子场预报方法中,作者不仅考虑预报量之间内部的相互关系,而且也考虑了外部因子的影响,借助于从综合因子中优选因子,可以建立对于预报数量和等级都适用的最优预报方程。提出了权重相关系数的概念。与其他相关系数之间的明显差别是,它具有场的特征。本文还介绍了水湿的盐度预报的一些实例。

A STUDY ON THE METHOD OF FIELD PREDICTION BY SELECTING THE OPTIMUM FACTORS

The prediction equations formulated in the existing prediction methods by using the empirical orthogonal function are generally based upon field resolution according to the statistical relation among the predictands. The influence of external factors is seldom to be considered. The present paper attempts to introduce the influence factors into the empirical orthogonal prediction method. In the method of field prediction by selecting the optimum factors we consider not only the internal correlation among the predictands but also the influence of external factors and the optimal prediction equation which suitable for predicting both values and grades may be formulated by the selected optimum factors from the combinational factors. The conception of weighting correlation coefficient is suggested here. The obvious difference between it and other correlation coefficients is that the former has the field character. Several practical examples of the temperature and salinity prediction are also presented in this paper.