| 地震灾害预测基本思维模式探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 马润勇, 彭建兵, 王家鼎, 潘爱芳. 地震灾害预测基本思维模式探讨[J]. 西北地质, 2003, 36(2): 103-108. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马润勇 彭建兵 王家鼎 潘爱芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.长安大学地质工程与测绘学院, 陕西 西安 710054;; 2.西北大学地质学系, 陕西 西安 710069;; 3.西北大学地质学系, 陕西 西安 710069;西安建筑科技大学理学院, 陕西 西安 710055 |
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| 基金项目： | 本论文获陕西省自然科学基金重点项目资助(2001D05) |
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| 摘 要： | 地震灾害能否预测,如何实现有效预测,作者认为:地震作为一种自然界的客观存在,它的孕育、发生和发展过程必然遵循着一定规律。如果认识掌握了这一规律,就可以实现预测。加强震源研究是实现地震灾害预测的基础。提高预测效果的良好途径是预测期尺度与预测方法相对应。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预测 震源研究 预测期尺度 预测方法 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-6248(2003)02-0103-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2003-02-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-02-18 |
Discussion on the model of basic thinking in the earthquake prediction |
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| MA Run-yong, PENG Jian-bing, WANG Jia-ding, PAN Ai-fang. Discussion on the model of basic thinking in the earthquake prediction[J]. Northwestern Geology, 2003, 36(2): 103-108. |
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| Authors: | MA Run-yong PENG Jian-bing WANG Jia-ding PAN Ai-fang |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Geological Engineering and Geometry, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710054, China;; 2.Geology Department of Northwest University, Xi'an 710069, China;; 3.Geology Department of Northwest University, Xi'an 710069, China;Institute of Sciences, Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology Xi'an 710055, China |
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| Abstract: | Whether the earthquake hazard can be predicted or not, and how are we to achieve efficacious prediction.In this paper, The author thinks that earthquake is a objective reality of nature world and the developing process of seismology, occurrence has inevitably a regularity.If its regularity is recognized and mastered, the prediction would be achieved.Strengthening research on seismic source is the basis to achieve earthquake hazard prediction.Correspondence between yardstick of prediction term and prediction method is good way to improve prediction effect. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake prediction seismic focus research yardstick of prediction term prediction method |
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