准噶尔盆地油气储量、产量增长规律及趋势预测

世界主要含油气盆地探明程度、与油气储量和产量以及勘探成熟阶段之间有密切的关系．准噶尔盆地油气探明程度分别为21．45％和3．10％，仅处于勘探中期，预示着丰厚的资源潜力和良好的勘探潜力，在上述认识基础上，总结了近50年油气储量和产量连续增长的因素和规律，区域勘探战略的展开和新区勘探的不断突破是其主要原因，而新技术的应用和地质认识的不断深化是其重要保证．最后对勘探前景进行了预测，即油气后备资源丰厚，勘探难度和风险不断加大，隐蔽性圈闭是今后油气勘探的主要目标．

INCREASING REGULARITY AND TENDENCY FORECAST OF OIL AND GAS RESERVES AND PRODUCTION IN JUNGGAR BASIN

This paper investigated a lot of documents from all over the world related to petroleum resources, oil and gas reserves and production. Integrated with the actual oil and gas exploration and production of Junggar basin, statistics analysis and comparison shows that there is a very close relationship among proved extent, oil and gas reserves and production, and exploration stages of the main oil-bearing basins in the world. The proved extents for oil and gas in Junggar basin are 29.51% and 3.10% respectively, which indicates the basin just in the middle stage of exploration and predicts abundant resources and exploration potential. This paper summarizes the factors and rules that allow continuously increase of petroleum reserves and production in the basin in recent 50 years. This resulted from the implementation of regional exploration strategy and exploration breakthrough of new areas, while the applications of new technologies and deepened geologic knowledge will ensure the increase trend of petroleum reserves and production. Forecast has been made for exploration potential in Junggar basin and subtle traps have been defined as the main targets for exploration in the future.