孤山川流域降水变化特征及趋势分析

依据孤山川流域1956—2006年逐月实测降水资料,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、五点滑动平均法、R/S分析法等方法对孤山川降水进行分析。结果表明:孤山川流域降水主要集中于7、8、9三个月,年内分配极不均匀;降水序列存在明显减少趋势,且季降水序列分别存在着不同的变化趋势,夏季有明显减少趋势,冬季相反有增加趋势,春秋二季减少趋势不显著;经Mann-Kendall检验法、R/S分析表明孤山川流域降水减少趋势有持续性。

Analysis on Variation Characteristics and Trends of Precipitation in Gushanchuan Watershed

Basis on the monthly measured precipitation data of Gushanchuan Basin from 1956 to 2006,the author analyzes precipitation by the Mann-Kendall test method,the five-point moving average method,the/S analysis method.The results showed that:precipitation of Gushanchuan Basin was mainly concentrated in months of July,August and September and the annual precipitation distribution was very uneven;the trend of precipitation sequence was obviously declining,and seasonal precipitation sequence was showing different trends,it was significantly reducing trend in Summer,on the contrary there was an increasing trend in Winter,Spring and Autumn declining trend was not significant;through Mann-Kendall test method and the R/S analysis,the decreasing trend of precipitation in Gushanchuan basin was continuing.