江西省耕地转移驱动机理

构建涵盖农业生产、耕地向建设用地转移和耕地向林/草地转移的江西省土地用途转移驱动机理模型,采用分段估计逐步增加解释变量的方法测度了人口、社会、经济、区位和自然因素等驱动土地用途转移的机理。研究表明,人口规模是江西省土地用途转移的重要驱动力,社会经济因素在短时间内起决定性作用,各种驱动力以各种方式组合来增强或者减弱其对区域土地用途转移的作用效果。其中,农业人口规模及生产投入要素是影响江西省农业生产的主要因素;人口规模、平原面积比例及土地管理政策是江西省耕地向建设用地转移过程的重要解释变量;农业人口比重、地形坡度、粮食产量及非农产业是江西省耕地向林/草地转移过程的重要影响因素,并揭示了解释了江西省在众多驱动力作用下土地用途转移规律。

Driving Mechanism of Cultivated Land Conversions in Jiangxi

Cultivated land conversion is considered to be one of the major problems threatening agricultural development, food security and supporting functions of cultivated land conversions in Jiangxi. Recognization on the driving mechanism of cultivated land conversions is far from complete. This paper integrates geophysical information with socio-economic processes and policy changes to build an econometric model to explore the driving mechanism of cultivated land conversion from 1988 to 2005. Three equations are included in the econometric model to uncover the driving mechanism for agriculture production process, the conversion process from cultivated land to built-up area and the conversion process from cultivated land to forested land/grassland, which includes explained variables to identify the three main processes and the driving forces from social-economic, demographic, geophysical, managerial domains. The estimation results from the econometric model shows that the population size is one of the predominant driver for the three processes, and socio-economic factors play a decisive role in a short period of time. The synthesized influences from the multiple driving factors produces an enhanced or offsetting resultant effects for the ecological processes. The research results show that the agricultural population size and investment are the key influencing factors for agricultural production, while population size, the ratio of the plains area to total land and land management policy are the key explanatory variables in the conversion process of cultivated land to built-up area; and the proportion of agricultural population, terrain slope, food production and non-agricultural industry are the important influencing variables in the process of conversion from cultivated land to forested land/grassland.