基于抗震性能普查数据的城区群体建筑震害预测初探

采用孙柏涛等人提出的基于已有震害矩阵模拟的群体震害预测模型,在广东省防震减灾"十一五"重点项目"重点监视防御区县级以上城市建(构)筑物抗震性能普查"数据的基础上,对已做过震害预测城市(区)与普查城市在设防标准、建筑年代、地上层数、建筑用途及平面形状等五方面进行相似度计算,最后得出普查城市的震害矩阵,对比分析结果表明,应用该方法对群体建筑物实施震害预测是可行的。

A Preliminary Study for Earthquake Damage Prediction of City Building Group Based on Seismic Performance Census Data

Using the model of earthquake da mage prediction of building group based on existing earthquake damage matrix proposed by Sun Baitao and others, on the basis of key project of the “11th Five-Year ”earthquake disaster mitigation in Guangdong province the seismic performance census of cities above county level buildings and structures in key area for earthquake surveillance and protection, the paper does similarity calculation for the cities that have done earthquake damage prediction and census cities on seismic fortification criterion, acquires building time, building storey number, building function and acquires plane shape these five parts, and the earthquake damage matrix of census cities. Comparative analysis results show that the application of the method for earthquake damage prediction of building group is feasible.