1975—1986年古田水库人工降雨效果总分析

本文对福建省古田水库地区1975—1986年人工降雨试验效果进行总评价.12年共进行244次随机试验,三种不同的统计分析方法(区域回归分析法、双比分析法和多元回归分析法)均表示122次催化平均相对增雨在20％左右,显著度高于5％水平.此外,按云型、天气条件、雷达回波顶温度分类统计,为选择有利作业条件提供科学依据.云和降水物理观测(冰核、雨水中银离子含量、雷达回波和雨滴谱)及数值模拟的工作,其结果为人工增雨统计结论提供某些初步物理学解释.

THE TOTAL ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF ARTIFICIAL RAINFALL IN GUTIAN RESERVOIRAREA,FUJIAN (1975-1986)

The randomized cloud seeding experiments from April to June of 1975-1986 were taken in Gutian Reservoir Area, Fujian. The total 244 experimental units were selected, 122 of them were seeded and the others unseeded as controlled by randomized procedure. In these experiments , the experimental effect was evaluated with the two-sample regression analysis, the double contrast analysis and multi-variate regression analysis. These analyses indicated that the average rainfall in the target area (1500 km2) was increased by a factor of 20% by seeding, with the significant level of 5% (one side test).The classified statistics with cloud type, temperature of echo top of seeded cloud and natural rainfall intensity provides scientific foundation for selecting the favourable seeding condition.