| A Probabilistic Estimation of Strong Earthquakes' Occurrence in Aeghion Area, Central Greece |
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| 作者姓名： | Theodoros M.Tsapanos Odysseus Ch.Galanis |
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| 作者单位： | Aristotle University of Thessaloniki，School of Geology，Geophysical Laboratory，Thessaloniki 54124，Greece，Aristotle University of Thessaloniki，School of Geology，Geophysical Laboratory，Thessaloniki 54124，Greece |
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| 摘 要： | INTRODUCTIONTheexaminedareaislocatedintheGulfofCorinthandhasbeenrecognizedasoneofthemostactiveriftsinthewholeAegeanSea .Itsquaternarynormalfaulting (Sebriere ,1 977)anditshighseismicity (PapazachosandPapazachou ,1 997;AmbraseysandJackson ,1 990 )makeitaphysicallaboratorywithintheMediterraneanarea ,wherethephysicalprocessrelatedtotheseismiccyclecouldbestudied .ThecityofAeghionexperiencedastrong (MW =6 4 )earthquakeinJune 1 995,whichcausedseveredamage (Tselentis ,etal.,1 996 ) .Twent…
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| 关 键 词： | 估计 概率 突发事件 强震 |
A Probabilistic Estimation of Strong Earthquakes' Occurrence in Aeghion Area, Central Greece |
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| Theodoros M.Tsapanos,Odysseus Ch.Galanis.A Probabilistic Estimation of Strong Earthquakes'''' Occurrence in Aeghion Area, Central Greece[J].Earthquake Research in China,2003,17(3):286-296. |
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| Authors: | Theodoros MTsapanos and Odysseus ChGalanis |
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| Institution: | Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, School of Geology, Geophysical Laboratory, Thessaloniki 54124, Greece;Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, School of Geology, Geophysical Laboratory, Thessaloniki 54124, Greece |
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| Abstract: | The probability of occurrence of strong ( Mw ≥ 6.0) earthquakes in the area of Aeghion(Central Greece) is determined by Bayes statistics. A catalogue of strong shocks around thecity of Aeghion since 1794 is used. For the purposes of our study two distributions ofearthquakes' occurrence are considered. In applying the Bayes approach, a Poissondistribution, which is a memoryless one, is assumed. In order to reinforce the result a time-dependent model (normal distribution) is also used. An effort is made to find the probabilitiesof earthquake occurrence for successive decades are determined by both distributions. Theestimated probability for a strong earthquake to occur during 1996 ～ 2005 in relation to theBayes approach shows that the year 2004 is the most likely for this future event. A pattern isalso revealed which suggests that the earthquakes in the examined area occurred in clusters (intime). The strong earthquakes in these clusters occurred in quadruplets. |
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| Keywords: | Bayes statistics Poisson distribution Time dependent model Cluster model Quadruplets Aeghion area |
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