| Preliminary Study on Probabilistic Prediction of Seismic Hazard in a Period of 10 Years |
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| 引用本文： | Gao Mengtan and Wang JianInstitute of Geophysics,SSB,Beijing 100081,China. Preliminary Study on Probabilistic Prediction of Seismic Hazard in a Period of 10 Years[J]. 中国地震研究, 1995, 0(4) |
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| 作者姓名： | Gao Mengtan and Wang JianInstitute of Geophysics SSB Beijing 100081 China |
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| 作者单位： | Gao Mengtan and Wang JianInstitute of Geophysics，SSB，Beijing 100081，China |
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| 基金项目： | This project was sponsored by the National Science and Technology Commission and Stale Seismological Burea． The contribution No95A0047， the Institute ofGeophysics,SSB,China. |
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| 摘 要： | Many uncertainty factors need be dealt with in the prediction of seismic hazard for a 10-year period.Restricted by these uncertainties,the result of prediction is also uncertain to a certain extent,so the probabilistic analysis method of seismic hazard should be adopted.In consideration of the inhomogeneity of the time,location,and magnitude of future earthquakes and the probabilistic combination of the background of long-term seismic hazard(geology,geophysical field,etc.)and the precursors of earthquake occurrence,a model of probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years s proposed.Considering the inhomogeneity of data and earthquake precursors for different regions in China,a simplified model is also proposed in order to satisfy the needs of different regions around the country.A trial in North China is used to discuss the application of the model.The method proposed in this paper can be used in the probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years.According to the
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Preliminary Study on Probabilistic Prediction of Seismic Hazard in a Period of 10 Years |
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| Gao Mengtan and Wang JianInstitute of Geophysics,SSB,Beijing ,China. Preliminary Study on Probabilistic Prediction of Seismic Hazard in a Period of 10 Years[J]. Earthquake Research in China, 1995, 0(4) |
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| Authors: | Gao Mengtan Wang JianInstitute of Geophysics SSB Beijing China |
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| Affiliation: | Gao Mengtan and Wang JianInstitute of Geophysics,SSB,Beijing 100081,China |
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| Abstract: | Many uncertainty factors need be dealt with in the prediction of seismic hazard for a 10-year period.Restricted by these uncertainties,the result of prediction is also uncertain to a certain extent,so the probabilistic analysis method of seismic hazard should be adopted.In consideration of the inhomogeneity of the time,location,and magnitude of future earthquakes and the probabilistic combination of the background of long-term seismic hazard(geology,geophysical field,etc.)and the precursors of earthquake occurrence,a model of probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years s proposed.Considering the inhomogeneity of data and earthquake precursors for different regions in China,a simplified model is also proposed in order to satisfy the needs of different regions around the country.A trial in North China is used to discuss the application of the model.The method proposed in this paper can be used in the probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years.According to the results of prediction and computer programs,it can satisfy the need for loss estimation caused by earthquakes and countermeasures against earthquake disaster. |
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| Keywords: | probability model medium-term prediction |
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