COMPARATIVE EXPERIMENTS OF DYNAMICAL FORECAST AND STATISTICAL FORECAST* |
| |
Authors: | ZHANG Hongzheng and LIN Zhenshan |
| |
Institution: | Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093;Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 |
| |
Abstract: | After analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of dynamical system and statistical system.some simple models with the equations of Lorenz system and auto-regresslon model have been respectively set up,and comparative experiments conducted.The result of the research demonstrates that in chaotic parametric domain,the accuracy of statistical forecast is higher than that of dynamical forecast,while in non-chaotic parametric domain,dynamical forecast is more accurate than statistical forecast. |
| |
Keywords: | dynamical forecast statistical forecast comparison |
|
| 点击此处可从《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》下载免费的PDF全文 |