The probability of proof in geomorphology —an example of the application of information theory to a new kind of glacigenetic morphological type,the ice-marginal ramp (Bortensander)

The scientific acceptance of presentations of proof is largely dependent upon the parts of mathematical logic upon which they are based. This explains the trend of introducing quantitative methods into tho disciplines which — due to the historical dimensions of their subjects — have so far followed a qualitative analysis of character coincidences i.e. a typogenetic form of reasoning. But the application of reductionistic quantification such as was followed in the GMK 25 project foundered because of the polymorphic structure of the phenomena. It was this that made geomorphological proof so difficult, since an inductive basis for general lawful relations can only be provided by regionally detailed observations of complexes with developments of their own. The application of information theory however e.g. in relation to the glacigenetic Type ‘Bortensander’ or ice-marginal ramps (IMR) now allows the determination of the probability of the coincidental occurrence of characteristics and a measure of the probability of the causal nexus upon which this is based. By transposing the basis of induction on to an abstract plane a high degree of proof of typogenetic arguments in geomorphology may be provided. The quantification here does not count the elements of the proof directly but is related to the occurrence of those indicators which form the empirically based qualitative units of the inductive key. The author gratefully acknowledges the translation of this paper rendered by Cyril A. Halstead, Glasgow