Space–time clustering of case–control data with residential histories: insights into empirical induction periods, age-specific susceptibility, and calendar year-specific effects |
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Authors: | Jaymie R Meliker Geoffrey M Jacquez |
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Institution: | (1) BioMedware, Inc., 516 North State Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48104, USA;(2) Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA |
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Abstract: | Our research group recently developed Q-statistics for evaluating space–time clustering in case–control studies with residential histories. This technique relies
on time-dependent nearest-neighbor relationships to examine clustering at any moment in the life-course of the residential
histories of cases relative to that of controls. In addition, in place of the widely used null hypothesis of spatial randomness,
each individual’s probability of being a case is based instead on his/her risk factors and covariates. In this paper, we extend
this approach to illustrate how alternative temporal orientations (e.g., years prior to diagnosis/recruitment, participant’s
age, and calendar year) influence a spatial clustering pattern. These temporal orientations are valuable for shedding light
on the duration of time between clustering and subsequent disease development (known as the empirical induction period), and
for revealing age-specific susceptibility windows and calendar year-specific effects. An ongoing population-based bladder
cancer case–control study is used to demonstrate this approach. Data collection is currently incomplete and therefore no inferences
should be drawn; we analyze these data to demonstrate these novel methods. Maps of space–time clustering of bladder cancer
cases are presented using different temporal orientations while accounting for covariates and known risk factors. This systematic
approach for evaluating space–time clustering has the potential to generate novel hypotheses about environmental risk factors
and provides insights into empirical induction periods, age-specific susceptibility, and calendar year-specific effects. |
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Keywords: | GIS STIS Bladder cancer Human mobility |
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