基于ANN的苏锡常地裂缝预测研究

伴随着地面沉降灾害的发生,地裂缝作为一种新的地质灾害出现在苏锡常平原上,已有十多年历史,给地区发展造成严重危害。作者在较详细地阐述区域地质背景基础上,着重分析了地下水位和地面沉降在地裂缝形成中的作用。确定了“起伏的基底外加地下水位和地面沉降作用”这一地裂缝成灾模式。研究认为地裂缝的发生与地下水及地面沉降之间不存在简单的线性关系。而是二者共同作用的结果,同时需要有量的配合。初步确定了水位埋深50m,地面沉降量达500mm这样一个苏锡常地区地裂缝的易发环境。通过文章的研究,使得苏锡常地区地裂缝的产生机制更加清晰。文中一些定性和半定量的分析结论将对该地区地裂缝防治区划产生指导作用。

Prediction of ground fissures in Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou area based on ANN analysis

Together with land subsidence,ground fissures have been another kind of geological hazard in Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou plain,a part of the Yangtze delta plain.During the past ten or more years,earth fissures have caused enormous economic losses and its negative influence on social economic development may last in future years.Although some survey reports and researches have been published before,few of them quantitatively or semi-quantitatively analyzed the roles of groundwater lever and land subsidence.Based on the analysis of geological background and former researches by others,the author discussed the general role of groundwater level and land subsidence during earth fissures formation process,and proposed that such fissures are commonly caused by groundwater level decline and differentiated land subsidence as well as irregular bedrock form.With the support of Artificial Neural Network(ANN) model,some fissures are carefully studied with groundwater level and land subsidence,aiming at discovering some relationship among them quantitively.The result indicates that fissures are caused by both groundwater level and land subsidence,there is no simple linear relationship between earth fissures and groundwater level,no yet simple linear relationship between earth fissures and land subsidence,furthermore,only when the two factors develop and reach certain critical conditions,earth fissures can appear.In Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou area,such critical conditions was suggested that groundwater level deeper than 50m and land subsidence over 500mm.The ground fissure formation mechanism is made more clear in this article,and some conclusions may be help for decision-making to prevent the earth fissures'development.