近20年来北京都市区人口增长与分布

利用第5次人口普查数据，研究1982~2000年北京都市区人口增长与分布规律。首先分析都市区人口增长特征，并提炼不同阶段人口增长的空间模型，发现：开始于20世纪80年代的人口郊区化，在90年代幅度加大；80年代北京都市区人口空间增长过程的相似性大于差异性，整体上呈现出一定的同质性特点；而90年代则差异性大于相似性，异质性特征日渐突出。继而，通过数学模型的回归研究北京都市区人口分布及空间结构的演化趋势。单核心模型的回归表明，Clark模型在拟合北京城市人口分布方面占据优势，而Smeed模型拟合都市区人口分布的效果更好，参数变化说明当前郊区化的主体仍属“近郊化”。多核心模型的回归表明，1990年都市区双中心结构刚刚发育，2000年多核心结构比较明显但并不成熟；主要的次中心在影响人口分布方面起到重要作用。近20年来，基于人口分布的北京都市区空间结构渐趋复杂。

The Growth and Distribution of Population in Beijing Metropolitan Area (1982-2000)

Using the latest data of the fifth census, the authors try to find some laws of the growth and distribution of population in Beijing Metropolitan Area from 1982 to 2000. First of all, the characteristics of population growth in Beijing Metropolitan Area are analyzed and the spatial models of population growth of different periods are drawn. The authors find that suburbanization happened in the 1980s, and quickened its step in the 1990s. The progress of population growth in the 1980s is homogeneous, because types of spatial change of population are less and similarity is more than difference, while that in the 1990s is heterogeneous, because there are more types and difference is more than similarity. Then regression of mathematical models is used to study the distribution of population and the evolution of spatial structure of Beijing Metropolitan Area. In Beijing, the model of Clark can describe population densities of urban areas well, while the model of Smeed can describe those of metropolitan area well. The changes of some parameters indicate that suburbanization in Beijing is still in the primary phase, and that the main way of suburbanization is not the outer one but the inner one. Based on the regression of multi-nuclear model, the authors find that a multi-nuclear spatial structure of Beijing Metropolitan Area did not exist in 1982, that a two-nuclear one appeared in 1990, and that a multi-nuclear one developed in 2000, which was not ripe compared with that in the western cities.