系列^14C样品贝叶斯法日历年龄校正研究进展

系列^14C样品贝叶斯法日历年龄校正研究已成为当前^14C年代学中一个热点,系统综述了时序已知、时序间隔已知和时序间隔近似已知系列^14C样品日历年龄校正研究的历史、原理、计算方法及其在树轮、泥炭、地层等领域上应用进展,对影响系列样品贝叶斯分析获得^14C日历年龄区间的主要因素以及未来发展方向作了归纳。大量事例研究结果表明系列样品贝叶斯分析的实质在于贝叶斯方法从统计的角度灵活地把地层信息以概率方式加入到^14C日历年龄校正过程中,获得比单个^14C年代校正精度更高的日历年龄。

Summarization on the Development of Calendrical Calibration by Bayesian Analysis on Series of Radiocarbon Dates

In the past several decades Bayesian statistical technique has been used to the analysis of radiocarbon calibration for high accuracy of dating results. This technique is expected to improve the imprecise calendar ages when ^14C data are individually calibrated in the plateaux and wiggles of ^14C calibration curve. Many successful cases have showed that Bayesian analysis could obtain more reliable chronology by incorporating stratigraphie information with radiocarbon ages. The historical progress, principle and calculation method aspects of Bayesian analysis were reviewed here for application in radiocarbon dating, and some archaeological and geological examples, such as sequences with known order, known age gaps and approximate gaps extracted from tree ring, peat and related deposits, were used to show its ability and reliability to reduce the uncertainties in radiocarbon dating. Finally, the effect factor and future developments of Bayesian analysis on serial chronology were also introduced.