黄河下游悬河决溢风险评价指标体系的构建

针对黄河下游存在决溢风险的现状,根据环境因素对悬河决溢的作用机制,通过对地质构造评价在决溢风险评价中的地位、洪水要素对悬河决溢的影响、不同决溢模式的形成机理进行了分析,从而建立了一套较为系统的黄河下游悬河决溢风险评价指标体系。文中提出了以下观点：1．将洪水要素纳入评价指标体系：2．决溢风险评价分为地质构造环境背景评价和决溢情景评价两部分;3．决溢情景评价与决溢模式相结合;4．以不同决溢模式的形成机理为基础确定评价因子。

Indicator System on Dike Breach Risk Evaluation for the Lower Reaches of Yellow River

The lower Yellow River is characterized as "Hang River". It deposits seriously at all times. It changed its course and breached frequently, and gave rise to great calamity to the Chinese People, especially in Henan and Shandong provinces. The risk of dike breach in the lower Yellow River, which is developing now, is a serious threat to people's life and property safety in the central China always, so it is of great significance to establish the indicator system to evaluate the risk of dike breach.By analyzing the environmental characteristics in the lower reach of Yellow River, especially its geology structure, the importance of flood factors and the mechanism of different dike breach pattern , a systematic evaluation indicator system of dike breach risk in the lower Yellow River is established.Some viewpoints on dike breach risk evaluation are put forward in this paper: 1. Putting the factors of flood condition into the risk evaluation indicator system. 2. The breach risk evaluation indicator system includes two parts, namely, environmental background evaluation of geology structure and scenario evaluation of dike breach. 3. The scenario evaluation of dike breach links up with the pattern of dike breach. It is very important to prevent and control flood. 4. The dike breach evaluation factors and indicators is selected and decided according to the mechanism of dike breach pattern.