东南沿海地区旱涝气侯准周期振荡特征及其变化趋势

本文提出干旱指数与洪涝指数二分序列，讨论了东南沿海地区1470～1993年时间序列上旱、涝气候准周期振荡特征．结果表明，旱的周期振动与涝的周期振动存在着差异，在不同的时间尺度上都有所反映，作周期分析时有必要分别寻求旱与涝各自的周期振动分量．结果还表明，太阳活动11年周期，22年磁周期和日月地相对运动19年周期，都与该区旱涝长期变化存在着较强的统计对应关系，并且太阳活动强弱世纪周期对其长期变化也有一定的影响。

THE PERIODIC CHARACTERS OF FLOOD/DROUGHT CLIMATE AND ITS VARIATION TENDENCY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AREA

he flood index series and drought index series are used to discuss the Periodic characters offlood/drought climate during 1470 ~ 1993 in the southeastern coast area in China. In drought series there exist significant Periodic componentS of 10, 177, 1 30, 80, 48 years in northern Partand of 10 ,80, 1 12, 41, 12, 30 years in southern pet of the area, while in find series thereexist significant Periods of 61, 81, 197, 19 years in the north and of 37, 23, 124, 14, 80, 10years in the south. From correlation analysis it is shown that long-term flood/drought variation isclosely associated with the 1 1-year and 22-year oscilation of solar activities, and with 19-year period of sun-moon-earth relative motion. The strong/weak century period of solar activity, tosome degree, also makes impact on long-term flood/drought variation. On this basis, the authorsgive an outlook on the trend of the long-term find/drought variation in the area.