乌鲁木齐河流域气候变化的区域差异特征及突变分析

利用乌鲁木齐河流域气象站的气温和降水资料,运用一元回归分析法和5年趋势滑动,进行了气候变化的趋势分析。结果表明:乌鲁木齐河流域的年平均气温在20世纪60-80年代偏低,90年代以后偏高,即80年代前呈下降趋势,90年代后呈上升趋势,并且秋、冬季升温幅度较大;60年代降水量最少,之后逐渐增多,2000年以来迅速增多;气温变化在空间上表现出上游气温低于下游,秋、冬季气候变暖明显早于春、夏季;降水变化的空间差异也明显。在此基础上,利用滑动T检验法、YAMAMOTO检验信噪比(SNR)、Mann-Kendall法、Cramer法和Pettitt法进行气候突变分析。结果表明:乌鲁木齐河流域气温降水突变不明显,不同方法检验的结果不太一致;春、夏季气温可能在1997年发生突变,而秋、冬季在80年代末90年代初发生突变。

Regional difference and catastrophe of climate change over Urumqi River Basin

Based on climatic data of two stations in the Urumqi River Basin,methods of regression analysis and moving average were used to study the climatic changing trend of the study area under the background of global war-ming.Results showed that the temperature was relatively low in the 1960s,1970s and 1980s and high in the 1990s,in other words the temperature was in a decreasing trend before the 1980s and in a ascending trend after the 1990s due to the rise of temperature in autumn and winter;the precipitation of upstream river basin showed a down-ward trend from the 1960s to the 1980s,then showed the increasing trend obviously.Since the beginning of the 21 st century,the precipitation increasing has especially been rapid.The precipitation of the downstream in the 1960s was little,then increased gradually,and quickly increased in 2000s.The temperature change in the lower reach area was more obvious than that in upper reach area.The warming trend in autumn and winter was more obvi-ous than that in spring and summer. Also the precipitation in the upstream area was more than that in the down-stream area,and the mountains area's more tharr plain's.What is more,methods of T test,YAMAMOTO(SNR),Mann-Kendall,Cramer and Pettitt were employed to analyze the climatic break,indicating that the abrupt changes of temperature and precipitation were not obvious in the study area,and different test methods had different results,however it showed that temperature in spring and summer had abrupt change in 1997.The temperature abrupt change in autumn and winter happened in the late 1980s and the early 1990s.The abrupt change of temperature in autumn and winter was earlier than that in spring and summer.The abrupt change of precipitation in the upstreamarea might OCCUr in the 1990s,while the abrupt change of precipitation in the downstream area might occur in the late 1970s and the early 1980s,about 10 years earlier than that in the upstream area.