气候变化背景下的贵州草海湿地降水量特征研究

贵州草海湿地对于气候调节、生物多样性研究等方面具有极其重要的作用。利用贵州省威宁国家基准气候站50a降雨量资料，采用数理线性回归，Man-Kendall检验法、最小平方法对降水量进行分析、预测,结果表明：年代际上，草海湿地降水量近50a来呈减少趋势，趋势递减率为-12.24mm/10a,减少趋势不明显。季节上，春季、夏季降水量呈增加趋势，趋势率分别为1.37mm/10a、6.15mm/10a。秋季和冬季降水量呈减少趋势，其中秋季减少趋势较为明显。趋势率为-17.86mm/10a。通过Man-Kendall参数趋势检验对近50a降水量进行趋势突变检验，Z值为-0.788，其绝对值小于1.28，未通过0.9的信度检验，说明降水量呈减少趋势，减少趋势不明显，与数理统计结果相吻合。Man-Kendall非参数突变检验近50a的降水量在1986年、1997年、2012年均存在突变。2019~2048年30a间草海湿地降水量呈现增加趋势。

Precipitation Characteristics of Caohai Wetland in Guizhou under the Background of Climate Chang

Guizhou Caohai wetland plays an important role in climate regulation and biodiversity research. Based on 50a rainfall data of Weining National Reference climate station in Guizhou Province, mathematical linear regression, Man-Kendall test and least square method were used to analyze and forecast the precipitation. The results show that the precipitation of Caohai wetland shows a decreasing trend in recent 50 years, with a decreasing rate of - 12.24mm/10a, and the decreasing trend is not obvious. Seasonally, the precipitation in spring and summer showed an increasing trend, and the trend rates were 1.37mm/10a and 6.15mm/10a respectively. The precipitation decreased in autumn and winter, especially in autumn. 86 mm / 10A. Through the Man-Kendall parameter trend test, the trend mutation test of precipitation in recent 50 years is carried out. The Z value is -0.788, and its absolute value is less than 1.28. It fails to pass the reliability test of 0.9, indicating that the precipitation has a decreasing trend, and the decreasing trend is not obvious, which is consistent with the results of mathematical statistics. Man Kendall nonparametric mutation test showed that the precipitation in recent 50 years had mutation in 1986, 1997 and 2012. During the 30 years from 2019 to 2048, the precipitation of Caohai wetland showed an increasing trend.