AOGS第六届学术年会气象学研究报告综述

简要综述了第六届亚洲大洋洲地球科学学会（AOGS）学术年会有关天气和气候的可预报性、协同亚洲季风试验、季风变化及其模拟与预测、气候变化与热带气候灾害、中层大气研究、中尺度气象学与台风研究以及卫星资料应用等方面的报告内容。在全球气候变化的大背景下,季风的年代际变化特征,可能成因及其对天气气候的影响是目前研究的热点问题之一。对亚洲季风系统形成机制的探讨及其与气候系统关系的研究有助于提高数值模式对季风系统的模拟能力,从而能够更好地预测季风系统及其演变。集合预报,特别是多模式超级集合预报方法引起了人们广泛的兴趣。研究报告指出,多个积云对流参数化方案的集成、集合卡曼滤波、条件非线性最优扰动法以及滑动训练期超级集合预报技术对数值天气预报的准确率都有明显改善。＂可预报性障碍＂在数值模式对大气环流的预报中同样存在。＂可预报性障碍＂本质上反映了系统的季节变化对预报结果的影响。研究还表明,热带气旋频率和强度的变化取决于在其形成的海域是动力因子还是热力因子起主导作用,如热力因子起主导作用则气候变暖会使该区域的热带气旋活动频率和强度增加。一些研究指出,中高纬度阻塞形势持续异常及南海的热源异常可能是造成2008年初中国南方低温、雨雪和冰冻灾害的主要原因。Formosat-2和Formosat-3等卫星观测资料的广泛应用将极大地提高数值天气预报、气候监测和空间天气预报水平。

A Review of the Meteorological Research at the AOGS 6th Annual Meeting

This paper reviews the meteorological research reported at the sixth annual meeting of Asia Oceania Geosciences Society(AOGS)including the predictability of weather and climate, a coordinated Asian monsoon experiment, the monsoon variability and modeling, climate change and tropical climatic hazards in Asia and Oceania, Middle atmosphere science, mesoscale meteorology and typhoon,and ap-plications of satellite data etc. On the background of global climate change,the interdecadal variability of the Asian monsoon, its possible mechanism and its impact on the weather and climate are hot re-search topics in atmospheric sciences. Discussions on the formation mechanism of the Asian monsoon system and its relation to the climatic system may improve the capability of the numerical models in the simulation of the monsoon system, and predict the monsoon system and its variability more accurately. Ensemble forecast, in particular the multimodel superensemble forecast technique has aroused considera-ble interest of scientists. The results of presentations at the meeting show that the unified multi-cumulus convective ensemble scheme,the ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF),the conditional nonlinear optimal per-turbation as well as the multimodel superensemble with the running training period are able to improve the accuracy of the numerical weather prediction significantly.The"predictability barrier"also appears in the prediction of the atmospheric circulation system in the AGCM.The main origin of the"predicta.bility barrier"in physical essence is the seasonal variability characteristic of the climate systems. Further study shows that more tropical cyclones(TCs)or more intense TCs depend on which factors. thermody-namic or dynamic factors, play a key role in the TCs formation and development in the ocean basins where the TCs form.As global warming is likely contributing to more favorable thermodynamic condi-tions for the formation and development of TCs.more TCs or more intense TCs are expected in the ocean basins where thermodynamic factors are important and significant.Some results show that the per-sistent anomalies of blockings in middle and high latitudes as well as the heating anomalies over South China Sea may be the main causes of the extreme weather of low temperature, icy rain and snow in southem China in early 2008.In addition. the satellite observations using Formosat-2 and Formosat-3 may significantly improve the operational numerical weather prediction, climate monitoring,and space weather forecasting.