A continuous simulation of Holocene effective moisture change represented by variability of virtual lake level in East and Central Asia

The fluctuation of a single lake level is a comprehensive reflection of water balance within the basin, while the regional consistent fluctuations of lake level can indicate the change of regional effective moisture. Previous researches were mainly focused on reconstructing effective moisture by multiproxy analyses of lake sediments. We carried out a series of experiments, including a transient climate evolution model, a lake energy balance model and a lake water balance model to simulate continuous Holocene effective moisture change represented by variability of virtual lake level in East and Central Asia.The virtual lake level, area, water depth and salinity are not equivalent to actual values, but we estimated relative changes of the regional effective moisture. We also explored the driving mechanisms of effective moisture change in different geographical regions. Our results indicated that gradually falling effective moisture during the Holocene in northern China was due to the combined effects of high lake evaporation caused by longwave and shortwave radiation, and low precipitation caused by reductions of summer solar insolation. A decline in effective moisture through the Holocene in the Tibetan Plateau and southern Central Asia resulted from decreased precipitation because of the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon. Increased precipitation induced by the strengthening of the westerly circulation contributed to the effective moisture rise during the Holocene in northern Central Asia.