水资源管理决策支持系统研究进展与展望

从框架、 技术等方面介绍了水资源管理决策支持系统发展状态, 总结了水资源管理决策支持系统的3个发展阶段: 模型模拟阶段、 模型模拟+DSS(DSS: Decision Support System)阶段、 情景分析+集成建模环境+DSS工具阶段, 阐述了这3个发展阶段各自的特点, 剖析了制约水资源管理决策支持系统的发展因素, 讨论了建立一个成功的水资源管理决策支持系统应具备的条件和采用的方式. 最后, 提出了集成综合观测系统、 集成建模环境和联机协商环境的水资源管理决策支持系统框架.

Water Resources Management Decision Support System: Review and Prospect

In this paper, development process of water resources management decision support system (WRMDSS) is introduced, which includes three phases: model simulation, model simulation + DSS (Decision Support System), scenario analysis + integrated modeling environment + DSS tool. The features of each phase are described in detail. The first phase focused on applying the physical models related with water to decision-making processes of water resources management. With the development of DSS technique, it was the main characteristics of the second phase that the framework of WRMDSS was gradually improved by using the more the better the physical models and the later the techniques including the GIS (Geographical Information System), RS (Remote Sensing), ES (Expert System), et al. In the final phase, the researches on WRMDSS aim to enhance the WRMDSS functions by taking into account flexibility, maneuverability and practicability of DSS by means of integrating the Modeling Environment. The reasons that block the development of WRMDSS also analyzed in this paper, and how to develop the successful WRMDSS is brought forward. Finally, the concepts on integrating multi-source observation system, modeling environment and on-line negotiation environment are proposed.