代表性浓度路径情景下的全球温室气体减排和对中国的挑战

介绍了政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）为第五次评估报告开发的新情景——代表性浓度路径（RCPs），分析了RCPs情景的内在优势，并描述了4类代表性RCPs（RCP8.5、RCP6、RCP4.5和RCP3-PD）的特征。利用IPCC最新发布的RCPs数据，分析了高端、中端稳定和低端浓度路径下，全球温室气体的排放空间、区域分担和减排成本，并着重探讨了低端路径与全球温度升幅限制在2℃以下目标之间的关系及其给中国带来的主要挑战和应对途径。

Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Under Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios and Challenges to China

This paper overviews the new set of integrated scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCPs), provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the fifth assessment process, analyzes the advantages of new approaches to scenarios development, and depicts the characteristics of the identified four RCPs (RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5 and RCP3-PD). By using the RCPs database updated by IPCC, the paper analyzes the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, regional emissions and emission abatement costs under the high, intermediate-range and low RCP scenarios. More importantly, the paper investigates the relationship between low RCP and keeping the global temperature rise below 2℃, identifies the challenges brought to China, and presents China’s countermeasures for addressing the challenges.