合成平均图分析在2003年高温天气预报中的应用

大气环流异常对中短期天气变化有着重要影响。利用数值预报产品制作特征要素的合成平均图,是准定量分析前期大气环流异常对中短期天气变化造成影响的有效途径之一,也是对数值预报产品进行合理有效解释应用的一个重要方向。通过利用欧洲中心格点资料制作预报和历史同期合成平均图,结合本地经验指标进行分析比较,并根据临近天气形势进行中短期预报订正,是2003年广西持续性大范围高温天气过程成功预报的关键。

The Application Of Synthesis Average Chart Analysis In The Scorching Weather Forecast 2003

The abnormality of the atmospheric circulation may affect significantly the change of the short and medium range weather.The application of characteristic factor synthesis average chart made by the numerical forecasting products is one of the effective ways for the accurate quantitative analysis for the abnormality of the early stage atmospheric circulation to the change of the short and medium range weather,and is also an important direction for the reasonable effective explanation application to the numerical forecasting products.This paper makes forecast and the synthesis average chart of the historic corresponding period by using the European center grid data,and conducts the analysis comparison by combining the index of local experience,and revises the short and medium range forecast according to the approaching weather situation.This is the key point to predict successfully the wide range and lasting scorching weather process in Guangxi 2003.