Coral δO records as an indicator of winter monsoon intensity in the South China Sea

We have used correlative analysis between mean December-January-February winter wind velocities, measured at the Xisha Meteorological Observatory (16°50′N, 112°20′E) in the middle of the South China Sea, and mean δ¹⁸O data for the corresponding month from Porites lutea coral, collected in Longwan waters (19°20′N, 110°39′E), to obtain a linear equation relating the two datasets. This winter wind velocity for the South China Sea (WMII_scs) can then be correlated to the coral δ¹⁸O by the equation WMII_scs = −1.213-1.351 δ¹⁸O (‰ PDB), r = −0.60, n = 40, P = 0.01. From this, the calculated WMII_scs-δ18O series from 1944 to 1997 tends to decrease during the 1940s to the 1960s; it increases slightly during the 1970s and then decreases again in the 1980s and 1990s. The calculated decadal mean WMII_scs-δ18O series had a obvious decrease from 5.92 to 4.63 m/s during the period of 1944-1997. The calculated yearly mean WMII_scs-δ18O value is 5.58 m/s from 1944 to 1976 and this decreases to 4.85 m/s from 1977 to 1998. That is the opposite trend to the observed yearly mean SST variation. The yearly mean SST anomaly is −0.27° from 1943 to 1976 and this increases to +0.16° from 1977 to 1998. Spectral analysis used on a 54-year-long calculated WMII_scs-δ18O series produces spectral peaks at 2.4-7 yr, which can be closely correlated with the quasibiennial oscillation band (QBO band, 2-2.4 yr) and the El Ñino southern oscillation band (ENSO band, 3-8 yr). Hence most of the variability of the winter monsoon intensity in the middle of the South China Sea is mainly constrained by changes in the thermal difference between the land and the adjoining sea area, perhaps due to global warming.