| 用ECMWF数值预报产品作热带气旋路径预报的业务系统 |
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| 引用本文： | 万齐林,谢玲娟. 用ECMWF数值预报产品作热带气旋路径预报的业务系统[J]. 热带气象学报, 1996, 12(3): 272-279 |
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| 作者姓名： | 万齐林 谢玲娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州热带海洋气象研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 85-906-05-02专题成果 |
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| 摘 要： | 以欧洲中心数值预报产品为基础,采用ＥＥＯＦＳ展开选取“典型场”作为数值预报产品的信息,以统计释用方法研究建立的,可以应用于南海区的热旋路径业务预报方法。该方法于１９９４年台汛期参加由广东省气象主持的“关于热带气旋预报业务试验项目”,进行了９个台风的共１４次预报试验,平均误差２４ｈ为１８７ｋｍ,４８ｈ为２５２ｋｍ。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 路径 数值预报 业务系统 |
| 收稿时间： | 1995-02-21 |
| 修稿时间： | 1995-08-01 |
AN OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK BY MEANS OF ECMWF PRODUCTS |
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| Wan Qilin and Xie Linjuan. AN OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK BY MEANS OF ECMWF PRODUCTS[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 1996, 12(3): 272-279 |
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| Authors: | Wan Qilin and Xie Linjuan |
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| Affiliation: | Guangzhou Institue of Tropical and Oceanic Meteorology, Guangzhou, 510080;Guangzhou Institue of Tropical and Oceanic Meteorology, Guangzhou, 510080 |
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| Abstract: | Based on ECMWF numerical prediction products, a operational satistical numerical interpretation forecast system of the South China sea tropical cyclone tracks is built by means of EEOFS method. In the summer of 1994, The fourteen real-time forecasting for the tracks of nine tropical cyclone is performed under the program of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau for "Tropical Cyclone Operational Experimental Forecast", and the average errors are 187km for 24hr,352km for 48hr. |
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| Keywords: | Tropical cyclone track Numerical prediction interpretation Extended empirical orthogonal function(EEOF) |
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