The role of statistics in weather modification Experiments

Abstract

A number of proverbs and examples succinctly indicate that the role of statistics in experimentation often is not well understood. A careful look at the definition, origins, and subject matter of statistics shows that statistics is a science and in fact may be the science of “doing science.” As such, the role of statistics in weather modification experimentation is pervasive and powerful but not always obvious. The general statistical structure for experimentation is presented in terms of an experiment's states of “life” and its general components. A few specific problems encountered in weather modification experiments are examined and the role of statistics in their resolution is indicated. Particular attention is given to the relative roles of exploratory and confirmatory experiments. Parallels between weather modification experiments and medical clinical trials are discussed, and, lastly, some suggestions for an improved interface between meteorology and statistics is offered.