重庆市主体功能区识别的主导因素与空间稳定性约束机理

主体功能区规划已上升为国家制度和战略,对中国长期空间发展格局优化与再组织将发挥积极的引导和约束作用。从地域性角度出发,探寻主体功能区发生性(形成与演化)和反馈性(识别与规划)时空机理与规律是地理学具有时代意义的重要科学问题。以重庆市为例,通过国土空间开发条件综合评价,识别了主体功能区划分的适宜性空间格局。基于对西南山区发展约束条件的基本认识,提出了地域主体功能空间分异的主导性约束假设,设定地形和区位为原生性主导因素,验证了其与区划指标系统的定量关联性,以此为基础解析了主导因素约束机理并提出了地域主体功能区的空间稳定性机制。研究发现:①开发与保护适宜性识别结果的格局指向清晰。城市化适宜的区域主要集中于都市区和部分周边区县,区域副中心(万州和黔江)适宜性也相对较高。生态保护适宜的区域集中于渝东北秦巴山区及部分三峡库区区县,同时包括渝东南武陵山区所在区县。②地形和区位因子在本区域对主体功能区的识别与形成具有主导约束作用。回归分析显示,主体功能区划指标与地形因子相关性水平达到显著的超过70%,区位因子超过40%;两者综合后与区划标志变量(A、B指数)的相线性相关拟合度R2均超过0.8;地理探测器发现,地形和区位因子对区划指标的约束性分别有9个和7个达到0.05显著性水平,对A、B指数的解释度分别约为70%和60%,两者叠加后,约束水平全部达到显著,对A、B指数的解释度在90%左右。③空间稳定性机制表现为两个方面,其一是基于主导因素约束的稳定性传递机制,称为客观稳定性;其二是基于指标体系的局域相对性和算法的内部抵消机制,称为主观稳定性。两种机制的协同性验证了区划技术系统的地域适应性和科学性。

Revealing the dominant factors and spatial stability restrictive mechanism for Major Function-Oriented Zoning in Chongqing municipality

Having arisen as a national strategy and institution, the Major Function Zones Planning (MFZP) will play an active role in guiding and restraining China's long-term spatial development pattern. From the perspective of region uniqueness, it is critical to reveal the genesis (formation and evolution) and feedback (identification and planning) principles for MFZP. This paper takes Chongqing Municipality, a typical provincial unit in Southwest China, as an example to identify the suitable spatial pattern for MFZP by Territorial Space Development Conditions Comprehensive Evaluation (TSDCCE). Depending on perceptual observation of suitable pattern, this paper makes a dominant factors restriction hypothesis, defines the topography and urban location as the dominant factors, and then validates the correlation between dominant factors and Major Function-Oriented Zoning (MFOZ) index system. Then, based on the above analysis results, it discusses the restrictive and spatial stability mechanism originated from dominant factors for MFOZ. The results show that: (1) The spatial pattern of suitability is clear in terms of development or protection. The areas suitable for urbanization are mainly metropolitan regions and some surrounding counties, and sub-regional centers (Wanzhou and Qianjiang) also have relatively high suitability. The areas suitable for ecological protection are mainly located in the northeast and southeast of Chongqing, including Daba mountain area, Three Gorges Reservoir area and Wuling mountain area. (2) Topography and urban location factors dominate the MFOZ spatial pattern in this region. Regression analysis showed that more than 70% of the correlation between the MFOZ index and the topographic factor reached a significant level, while the correlation between the MFOZ index and urban location factor is over 40%. The significant levels (R²) of correlation between the weighting index (topography and urban location) and MFOZ flag variables (A and B index) are more than 0.8; The geographic detector finds that the topography's restriction on MFOZ indicators and urban location factors on that are 9 and 7, respectively, which reaches 0.05 significant level and the explanatory degrees for indicators A and B are about 70% and 60%, respectively. Then combining topography factor and urban location factor, it finds that restriction is obvious and the explanatory degrees for A and B are up to about 90%. (3) The spatial stability mechanism is shown in two aspects: one is the stability transfer mechanism based on the dominant factor's restriction, which is called objective stability; the other is the local relativity index system and the internal cancellation mechanism of the algorithm, namely, subjective stability. The coordination of the two mechanisms verifies the regional adaptability and correctness of the zoning technology system.