中蒙俄高铁建设的影响机理及对策

中蒙俄高铁建设是促进中蒙俄交通基础设施互联互通、打造国际陆上交通走廊的重要举措,是中蒙俄经济走廊建设的重要突破口。科学合理地布局中蒙俄高铁线路、规避高铁建设面临的不利影响和风险,急需理清高铁建设的影响因子,揭示其作用机理和空间分布格局,制定针对性强的防控对策。本文分析了中蒙俄高铁建设的主要影响因子,阐明了各类因子对高铁建设的影响机理,通过构建一种综合集成的影响指数评估模型（IIIEM）,量化评估了不同地区各类影响因子的影响指数,揭示了其空间分布格局,并据此制定了消除影响的中蒙俄高铁东线和西线的线路布局建议方案。提出通过“高铁换资源、高铁换市场”等互利共赢创新合作模式,消除经济影响;加强沟通和技术展示,降低社会影响;通过设置缓冲区及高科技手段,规避生态风险;构建中蒙俄跨境地区三大生态风险跨国联合防控体系,加强政策对接,促进中蒙俄经济一体化等防控对策及保障措施。本研究将为中蒙俄高铁建设线路科学合理布局、风险防控提供科技支撑和决策参考。

Influencing mechanism and policy suggestions of China- Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction

The construction of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway (CMRHSR) is a strategic move to promote inter-connectivity of transportation infrastructure and to build international land transportation corridor among China, Mongolia and Russia. However, a well-planned CMRHSR demands that we accurately clarify the main influencing factors of high-speed railway construction, reveal its influence mechanism and spatial pattern, and formulate targeted prevention and control measures. Therefore, this study analyzes the main factors influencing the construction of the CMRHSR, clarifies its influence mechanism on high-speed railway construction. By establishing an integrated influence index evaluation model (IIIEM), we evaluate the magnitudes of different influencing factors in all research units, and reveal their spatial pattern. We found that economy, society and ecology are the key factors influencing high-speed railway construction. Regions with great economic influence are Zabaykalsky Krai, Republic of Buryatia, and Mongolia due to their underdeveloped economy, slow even negative economic growth, sparsely distributed and declining population, as well as poor transportation, which suggests poor profitability for high-speed railways in the short-term. Regions with great social influence are Mongolia, Zabaykalsky Krai, Republic of Buryatia and Irkutsk Oblast due to the high unemployment rate in Mongolia and relatively low government and residential support because of geopolitical and ecological destruction concerns arising from high-speed railway construction, which reduces the feasibility on the construction of high-speed railway. Regions with great ecological influence are Heilongjiang, Buryat Republic, Irkutsk Oblast, and Zabaykalsky Krai due to their favorable ecological environment and rich biodiversity, which suggests a high ecological destruction risk; regions with great disaster influence is Mongolia due to its frequent disasters, which may increase the difficulty of railway construction. Then, according to the distribution of influencing factors, we propose designs for the east and west CMRHSR and policy suggestions to mitigate impacts on high-speed railway construction. Suggestions include establishing innovative cooperation mode of "high-speed rail for resources and markets" to reduce economic influence; strengthening communication and high-tech propaganda to reduce social influence; setting up buffers and applying high-tech engineering techniques to reduce ecological risk. Some measures are proposed to mitigate construction influence such as establishing joint prevention system of three major ecological risks in China, Mongolia and Russia trans-border areas, and enhancing strategic collaboration and promoting economic integration among the three countries.