基于库仑引力模型的中美日地缘经济关系测算

冷战结束后,地缘经济成为影响国际关系的重要因素,国家间由于自然条件、资源禀赋、经济结构等不同形成了竞争型或合作型的地缘经济关系,在经济冲突加剧的地缘经济时代,如何平衡国家间的经济竞争与合作是当今国际关系的重要课题。本文以中美日三国2007-2016年为例,借鉴库仑引力的思想,引入地缘经济合作强度的概念和测度方法,探讨国家间地缘经济竞争与合作的规律,在考虑距离因素的基础上,分产品、进口和出口,准确地刻画了国家间经济合作或竞争的强弱程度。测算结果表明：① 中美日三国的地缘经济合作强度多为负值,三国总体上竞争大于合作,且日本与其他两国的竞争相比于中美之间的竞争更加明显;② 从贸易产品类型来看,三国间的矿物燃料、车辆、电机及设备零部件、机械设备等产品地缘经济合作强度的影响远大于其他产品类型,是决定三国间地缘经济关系的主要产品类型;③ 三国间石油类产品的地缘经济合作强度是所有产品中最小的,对海外石油资源的争夺是中美日三国地缘经济竞争关系中的决定性因素。

Calculation of the geoeconomic relationships between China,the USA and Japan based on Coulomb force model

Geoeconomics has become one of the most important factors of international relationship since the end of the Cold War. Different nations have formed competitive or cooperative geoeconomic relationships because of their different natural conditions, resource endowments, and economic structures. Hence, it is important to balance the economic competition and cooperation between nations in the geoeconomic era of heightened economic conflict. This paper aims to explore the rule of competitive or cooperative geoeconomic relationships between nations by taking China, the USA and Japan as examples, and the recent 10 years (2007-2016) as a study period. As the major powers of the Pacific region, the geoeconomic relationships between China, the USA, and Japan have a strong connection with the development of the Pacific region and even the global economy. This paper builds the concept and measurement of geoeconomic cooperative intensity, inspired by the thought of the Coulomb force of physics. Compared with the previous measure, the method of geoeconomic cooperative intensity exactly portrays the degree of competitive or cooperative geoeconomic relationships between nations owing to its consideration of distance factor, production type factor, as well as the import and export volume. The results show that: (1) The geoeconomic relationship as a whole is more competitive than cooperative between China, the USA and Japan, while almost all the separate results are negative between the three nations. And Japan is more competitive with the other two nations than the competition between China and the USA; (2) In terms of the detailed products types, mineral fuels, vehicles, motors and equipment parts, and mechanical equipment generally determine the characteristics of the geoeconomic relationship among three nations, since these products have far greater influence on the geoeconomic relations than other products; (3) The cooperative intensity of oil resource between China, the USA and Japan is the smallest among all the products. In other words, the oil resource is the most influential product. Therefore, the competition of the overseas oil resource will be a decisive factor in the economic competition among China, the USA and Japan.