东北地区经济结构失衡水平评价及其对经济增长的影响研究 ——基于空间计量模型分析

构建包括产业结构、投资消费结构、金融结构、区域经济结构和国际收支结构在内的经济结构失衡测度指标体系,运用因子分析法和ArcGIS 空间分析法对2003~2015年东北地区经济结构失衡水平、空间格局及集聚模式进行探究,并构建空间计量模型考察其对经济增长的影响。结果表明：① 东北地区经济结构普遍处于失衡状态,但失衡水平在不断降低。② 经济结构失衡水平高值区被低值区包围,在空间上形成典型中心-外围分布模式。③ SDM模型估计结果表明,经济结构失衡对经济增长的影响具有阶段性,2003~2008年,对经济增长产生抑制作用,并表现出负空间溢出效应,而2009~2015年对经济增长产生促进作用,出现“失衡并增长”。

The Evaluation of Imbalance of Economic Structure and Its Influence on Economic Growth: Based on the Spatial Econometric Model

Along with the economy development goes into a new normal in China, the economic structure imbalance becomes one of highlighted economic problems, especially in Northeast China. This phenomenon has attracted wide attention from scholars and society. The state government points out that the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of economic development mode, are not only important measurements to promote healthy development of national economy, but also vital methods to prosper the economy in Northeast China. Therefore, it is of important academic significance and practical value to analyze economic structure imbalance and its influence on economic growth. Based on this, this study establishes an evaluation index of economic structure imbalance, including industrial structure, investment and consumption structure, financial structure, regional economic structure and international payments structure, explores level of economic structure and its spatial-temporal characteristics of 34 cities in Northeast China from 2003 to 2015 by using factor analysis method and ArcGIS spatial analysis method. Due to the spatial effects of per capita GDP, then the paper sets up spatial econometrics models (including spatial lag model, spatial error model and spatial Durbin model) in order to explore the impact of economic structure imbalance on economic growth in Northeast China, which are different from traditional regression models ignoring space factors. The results show that: 1) Generally speaking, the economic structure in Northeast China is in imbalanced condition, but the level of imbalance is continuously decreasing. There is spatial heterogeneity in the level of imbalance, and the high level of imbalance area mainly concentrates in resource-based and old industrial cities. 2) High-value areas with imbalanced level of economic structure are surrounded by low-value areas, presenting a typical "core-periphery" distribution pattern in space. 3) Among three spatial econometrics models, the regression result obtained by spatial Durbin model is more convincing than the other two. The model reveals that the impact of economic structure imbalance is of a periodic characteristic. In the period of 2003 to 2008, it inhibits economic growth and generates significantly negative spillover effects. However, from 2009 to 2015, it promotes economic growth, that is “imbalance but growth”. The reasons for this seemingly contradictory are as followings: on one hand, from the previous analysis, the imbalance level of economic structure has been declining after adjustment, and appears a trend towards equilibrium. According to the principle of evolutionary economy, when the economic structure changes from imbalance to equilibrium, new drivers emerge and promote economic growth. On the other hand, in the Northeast China, the main driving forces for economic growth origin from the secondary, tertiary industry and investment, structure imbalance within a certain range can still stimulate economic growth weakly.