气候变化和人类活动对长江流域水储量变化的影响研究

利用2002-08～2016-12 GRACE数据扣除泄漏影响得到的长江流域陆地水储量（TWS）变化，分析其时空变化特征和趋势。结果表明，在此期间长江流域TWS增速为0.13±0.12 cm/a；TWS变化大的区域，如泄漏改正后三峡库区TWS变化由约10 mm/a变为15~20 mm/a，并呈现更大的空间异质性。利用多种气象数据，从气候变化和人类活动角度深入研究长江流域水循环变化。结果表明，降水量与TWS变化在时间和空间上都具有较高的相关性，TWS变化延迟1~2个月；上游源头处温度是影响TWS变化的主导因素，温度升高加速了上游高山冰川融化，使TWS具有增长趋势；三峡工程的蓄水也导致TWS变化；ENSO是长江流域TWS变化的主要影响因素。

Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Water Storage Changes in the Yangtze River Basin

Using August 2002 to December 2016 GRACE data, TWS variations are derived after deducting the leakage affect, and temporal spatial variation and change trend are analyzed. Results show that the growth of TWS is 0.13±0.12 cm/a. Areas where TWS significantly changed have more leakage influence. For example, after correction, in the Three Gorges Reservoir TWS increased from about 10 to 15-20 mm/a, presenting a greater spatial heterogeneity. In addition, the Yangtze River basin water cycle changes are closely studied using a variety of meteorological data thorough angles of weather impact and human activity. Precipitation and TWS have high correlation, TWS delaying 1 to 2 months. Whereas in the upstream source, temperature is the dominant factor, increasing trends of which have been accelerating melting glaciers, leading to an increasing trend of TWS. The Three Gorges project increased TWS. ENSO phenomena are another significant factor influencing TWS in the Yangtze River basin.