开平煤田深部9煤厚度预测的数学模型分析

开平煤田深部9煤层是重要的战略后备资源．对煤厚预测的可靠程度，是准确估算资源量的关键。根据该煤田沉积环境、赋煤规律及构造发育特征，选择了3条不同方向的剖面，建立了以煤层厚度及煤层厚度预测点与煤层露头之问距离的线性回归模型、多项式模型及波动模型，并利用Matlab数学建模软件，对各种数学模型进行拟合。根据该煤田沉积特点，对拟合结果进行分析与对比，在此基础上选择最佳数学模型，对开平煤田深部9煤厚度进行预测。拟合结果显示，深部9煤的煤厚变化规律明显，符合多项式拟合公式，其中三次多项式预测模型的置信度较高，能较好反映深部9煤厚度变化。

Coal Thickness Predicting Mathematical Model Analysis for No.9 Coal Seam in Deep Part of Kaiping Coalfield

The No.9 coal seam in deep part of the Kaiping coalfield is an important strategic backup coal resource, the reliability of coal thickness prediction is the key to estimate resource amount. Based on coalfield sedimentary environment, coal hosting pattern and tectonic development features, 3 different oriented sections were selected to establish linear regression,polynomial and volatility models for coal seam thickness and interval between coal seam thickness predicting point and coal outcrop, using Matlab mathematical software to carry out different kinds of mathematical model fitting. According to sedimentary features of the coalfield, carry out analysis and correlation of fitting results, then select optimal mathematical model, to predict thickness of No.9 coal seam in deep part of Kaiping coalfield. The fitting results demonstrated that, the variation of deep part No.9 coal seam has evident regularity, and accord with polynomial fitting expressions, in which, the confidence level of cubic polynomial prediction model is rather high, can reflect deep part No.9 coal seam thickness variation better.