Tsunami Assessment for Risk Management at Nuclear Power Facilities in Japan |
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Authors: | Ken Yanagisawa Fumihiko Imamura Tsutomu Sakakiyama Tadashi Annaka Tomoyoshi Takeda Nobuo Shuto |
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Institution: | (1) Tokyo Electric Power Company, 1-3, Uchisaiwai-cho 1-chome, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8560, Japan;(2) Disaster Control Research Center, Tohoku University, Aoba 06, Aramaki, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-8579, Japan;(3) Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, 1646, Abiko, Abiko 270-1166, Japan;(4) Tokyo Electric Power Services Co., Ltd, 3-3, Higashi-ueno 3-chome, Taito-ku, Tokyo, 110-0015, Japan;(5) Advanced Research Institute for the Sciences and Humanities, Nihon University, 12-5, Goban-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-8251, Japan |
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Abstract: | The present study focuses on evaluation of the maximum and minimum water levels caused by tsunamis as risk factors for operation
and management at nuclear power facilities along the coastal area of Japan. Tsunamis generated by submarine earthquakes are
examined, basing literature reviews and databases of information on historical tsunami events and run-up heights. For simulation
of water level along the coast, a numerical calculation system should be designed with computational regions covering a particular
site. Also the calculation system should be verified by comparison of historical and calculated tsunami heights. At the beginning
of the tsunami assessment, the standard faults, their locations, mechanisms and maximum magnitudes should be carefully estimated
by considering historical earthquake-induced tsunamis and seismo-tectonics at each area. Secondly, the range of errors in
the model parameters should be considered since earthquakes and tsunamis are natural phenomena that involve natural variability
as well as errors in estimating parameters. For these reasons, uncertainty-induced errors should be taken into account in
the process of tsunami assessment with parametric study of the tsunami source model. The element tsunamis calculated by the
standard fault models with the errors would be given for the design. Then, the design tsunami can be selected among the element
tsunamis with the most significant impact, maximum and minimum water levels, on the site, bearing in mind the possible errors
in the numerical calculation system. Finally, the design tsunami is verified by comparison with the run-up heights of historical
tsunamis, ensuring that the design tsunami is selected as the highest of all historical and possible future tsunamis at the
site. |
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Keywords: | Tsunami assessment design tsunami standard fault model nuclear power facility |
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