中国葡萄酒产业生命周期判别与峰值

结合计算判断法和经验对比法，构建了葡萄酒产业生命周期模型，从产业规模、产业市场结构、技术进步与效率以及政府角色四个维度出发，对中国葡萄酒产业发展阶段进行综合评判。应用皮尔生长曲线测算了中国葡萄酒产业各阶段演进时间、产业发展规模与速度以及产业峰值。结果表明，中国葡萄酒产业正处于成长期早期阶段，并在产品研发、产品市场消费结构、技术创新、产业组织提升等方面正进入一个重大的调整与升级时期。2013年和2019年分别为中国葡萄酒产业发展的"起飞点"与"飞跃点"。2026年开始中国葡萄酒产业将进入成熟期，届时产值将达到1 216.598×108元，并不断趋于产业饱和值1 541.949×10⁸元，未来产业发展空间巨大。本研究对制订与产业生命周期阶段相吻合的政策，以实现产业的长期动态协调与均衡发展具有重要意义。

Life cycle stage identification and peak forecast of China's wine industry

According to the theory of life cycle,the industrial development trajectory followed the"S-shape", and the whole life cycle was divided into four stages:formative period,growth period,mature period and decline period. China has the world's ninth largest wine production and the largest consumption,therefore,in order to meet the international market demand and strive to develop the wine industry in China,it is necessary to grasp accurately the development stage of wine industry,and prospect the future development scientifically. In this paper, a new wine industry life cycle model was constructed in four dimensions including the industrial scale,industrial market structure,technological progress and efficiency and government role,and Chinese wine industry life cycle stage was determined and evaluated comprehensively. The evolution time of industrial development stages,the scale and speed of industrial development and the peak value of Chinese wine industry were calculated with Pearl curve model. The results show as follows:(1)Chinese wine industry had completed formation period of the industry life cycle and was experiencing an early stage of growth period,which meant that the wine industry's reform entered the crucial period and deep water area in R&D of product,product market consumption structure, technological innovation,industrial organization,etc. The upgrade of the wine industry was inevitable for the sustainable development.(2)The dynamic changes of wine production and enterprises increased rapidly since 2000. The international market share of Chinese wine was hovering at a low level,with the highest market share accounted for only 5.23% in 2012. Domestic rural wine consumption market was gradually developing,rural areas would be another new field for the development of China's wine industry. China's wine industrial development pattern was evolving from east major wine producing areas to west,and the CR4 value showed a downward trend.(3)The average growth rate of total factor productivity(TFP)was 12.40% due to technological progress (TECH)and technical efficiency change(EFF). The TECH showed longer increasing period than EFF and TFP, the growth in EFF and TFP appeared fluctuations of convergence on the time,there was an obvious lock-in effect in technology efficiency.(4)The wine industrial policy was going through the magnificent transformation from mandatory system supply to both demand-derivative institutional change and supplies of the formal and informal system,with low attention and intervention such as promotion,supervisors and maintenance.(5)2013 and 2019 were the"take off point"and"leap point"of the development of China's wine industry,respectively. China's wine industry will enter a mature period since 2026,when the output value will reach RMB 121.659 billion,and then tend to a saturation value of RMB 1541.949 billion. There is huge space for the future development of China's wine industry. This research plays a critical role in identifying the life cycle stage,forecasting future prospect and formulating policies that are consistent with the industry life cycle stage and regional correlation development.