北京市森林生态安全情景模拟与优化调控研究

在界定森林生态安全内涵的基础上，构建森林生态安全综合评价指标体系，建立基于SD模型的森林生态安全情景分析和调控模型，设计了林业政策扶持型、社会经济中速发展型、环境管理强化型、森林-社会经济-环境协调发展型等4种发展情景，并对各情景下的森林生态安全状况进行了仿真和动态评价分析。研究表明：初始状态中（即情景0），2000-2020年北京市森林生态安全综合评估值（FES）呈波动上升趋势，2013年达到最佳状态为0.527，但到2020年小幅下降到0.519，森林生态系统安全状况改善并不明显。与情景0相比，情景1~4均不同程度地提升了北京市森林生态安全水平，到2020年FES分别达到0.541，0.525，0.559和0.604，且森林资源的数量和质量也均有不同程度地改善。4种调控方案的模拟结果显示，北京市森林生态安全受林业政策实施、森林资源禀赋、社会经济发展和环境治理等因素的综合影响。只有保持森林资源的生产力和持续活力，注重维护森林生态环境的稳定健康，兼顾引导社会经济有序发展（即情景4），北京市森林生态安全才会显著改善。

Simulation and optimization of forest ecological security of Beijing:an application of system dynamics model

Ecological security is the basis for regional security as well as regional socio-economic sustainable development. The situation of ecological environment and forest ecological security in Beijing,the capital of China, is not optimistic. Forest ecological security(FES)has attracted a widespread attention of the government and the public. Through four designed scenarios,this paper obtained the development trend of forest ecological security in Beijing under different control schemes,and provides an effective way for the sustainable forest ecological security in Beijing. According to the characteristics of forest ecosystems in Beijing,a comprehensive evaluation index system of forest ecological security was established based on the definition of forest ecological security,and a scenario analysis and control model of forest ecological security based on SD model was established. Four scenarios,developing reasonable forest management policies,the medium-speed socioeconomic development, strengthening environmental management,Forest-socio-economic-environment coordinated development,were designed and simulation and dynamic evaluation analysis were carried out on the forest ecological security situation in each scenario. The initial FES index value(in Scenario 0),the comprehensive assessment value of forest ecological security(FES)in Beijing increased from 2000 to 2020,and reached to its highest level of 0.527 in 2013,but it declined slightly to 0.519 in 2020. The improvement of forest ecosystem security is not obvious. In Scenarios 1-4,the FES index value will reach 0.541,0.525,0.559 and 0.604 respectively in 2020,which all enhance the forest ecological security in varying degrees compared with Scenario 0,and the quantity and quality of forest resources will also be improved in varying degrees. The implementation of forest management policies,socioeconomic development and environmental management combine to affect the FES in Beijing. Only by maintaining the productivity and sustainable vitality of forest resources,maintaining the stability and health of the forest ecological environment,and guiding the orderly development of social economy(Scenario 4),the forest ecological security of Beijing will be significantly improved. In order to improve the forest ecological security of Beijing,the government might attach more attention to the following five aspects:(1)appropriately controlling the growth rate of population as well as the private vehicles;(2)adjusting the industrial structure and optimizing the energy consumption structure;(3)formulating scientific and reasonable forestry policy,that is increasing investment in forestry development and reasonable setting forest cutting quota;(4)strengthening technical innovation and collaboration so as to effectively control and treat the pollution;(5)constructing an persistent ecological security assessment institution and safeguard mechanism.