技术进步、能源结构与能源效率的动态关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

从技术进步、能源结构两个方面，通过VAR模型探究了技术进步、能源结构与能源效率间的关系。结果表明：技术进步、能源结构与能源效率存在稳定的协整关系。利用脉冲响应函数及响应进行了15 期的详细刻画，揭示了技术进步对能源效率的冲击效应较大，能源效率受到能源结构的冲击效应较小。研究结果对中国制定碳减排、节能减排政策和气候变化政策的制定等具有一定的参考作用。

Dynamic relationship among technical progress,energy structure and energy efficiency:empirical analysis based on VAR model

Environmental problems induced by excessive energy consumption caused widespread concern around the world. In this paper, based on econometric methods, two factors of technological progress and energy structure were chosen to analyze the long-term equilibrium relationship of energy efficiency to the two factors with the ADF unit root test and co-integration test, and then to probe into the dynamic impact of technological progress and energy structure on energy efficiency with pulse response function and variance decomposition analysis of VAR Model. The results show that: technological advance exerts a positive impact on energy efficiency, and energy structure has a negative impact on energy efficiency in the long term verified with Johansen co-integration test. With detailed portray of 15 phases of data using impulse response function and its response, the knock-on effect of technological progress on energy efficiency is relatively great, and the energy structure has a relatively small impact on energy efficiency. The results of the paper will provide reference for policy making on carbon emission reduction, energy saving and emission reduction and climate change in China. The measures of accelerating the pace of economic restructuring, striving to optimize and adjust the energy structure and gradually reducing the proportion of coal are not only in line with China's current industrial policy orientation, are also conducive to the promotion of energy consumption, thereby contributing to the optimization of China's energy consumption structure, the development of rational energy policies to improve efficiency of coal use, energy restructuring to clean, green, environment-friendly, healthy development. The government should promote investment in technological progress with new energy, new energy-saving technology policy to guide actively the enterprises in energy technology research and development and promotion to develop renewable energy, reduce the proportion of fossil energy consumption. At the same time, the government should develop the circular economy vigorously with the introduction of regulations and policies for a recycling economy based on the sustainable development concept.