塔里木河流域近期综合治理工程生态成效评估

基于源流下泄水量及生态输水变化、台特玛湖面积变化、土地覆被状况指数、植被净初级生产力等评价指标，对塔里木河流域近期综合治理规划工程生态成效及成因进行了评估。结果显示：塔里木河阿拉尔水文站年均径流量达45.76×10⁸ m³，台特玛湖水域面积2014年增加至415.67 km²，源流输水量及水流基本到达台特玛湖基本达到综合治理规划要求；整个流域耕地的增加对自然植被的影响较大，毁林开荒现象需要关注；源流区阿克苏河流域和叶尔羌河流域生态系统状况稳定性较好，和田河流域次之，开-孔河流域稳定性较差，开-孔河山区急需拟定应对生态状况变差的措施；塔里木河干流耕地增加较快，上游和中游生态系统结构在维持民生发展的前提下急需调整，下游生态系统结构好转。

Ecological effects evaluation for short term planning of the Tarim River

Based on four assessment criteria including the releasing capacity from four headstream zones and the variation of ecological water transportation, the area change of Taitema lake, the Land Cover Condition Index, and Net Primary Productivity (NPP)of different land cover, this paper evaluated the ecological effects of the short term comprehensive control project for the Tarim River Basin and its ecological formation for making ecological policies and building programmer scientifically. Results show that the volume of runoff of Aral hydrologic station reaches to 4.576 billion stere per annum. In sum, the result of this assessment criteria achieves the anticipant goal of this project. The area of Taitema Lake reaches to 415.67 square kilometers, the water transportation of source flows and the area of Taitema Lake achieve the request of river training works basically. The agricultural acreage of Tarim River region increases much faster, the usage of water in producing and ecological maintenance still has contradiction and deforestation needs attention. The stability of ecosystem in Aksu River basin and Yarkant River basin is better, followed by that in Hotan river basin, but the stability of ecosystem in Kaidu-Kongqi River basin need to be adjusted. The ecosystem structure of upstream and middle reaches needs adjustment badly in keeping sustainable development conditions, while downstream takes a turn for the better. The opening up wasteland for cultivation in the upper-middle reaches of the Tarim River Basin destroyed parts of the bush wood and sparse grassland. Building flood protection embankment in midstream affects the growth of vegetation on the banks of this river. The cultivated area extending is the prerequisite for local national economy develops and social stability, but the influence of the extending to ecological condition is inevitable. Balance between extending and ecological protection is the most important factor for the sustainable development in the basin. The objective of short time comprehensive control project has been completed in the past 14 years. But the ecosystem structure hasn't been improved in the round. The ecosystem structure conditions rely more on the carrying capacity, and the NPP interannual variation in Tarim River changes with the variation of ecological water transportation. So in order to ensure sustainable development of the water resources and the environment, the comprehensive control project still have more to do.