能耗氮排放变化及对区域温度变化的胁迫评价——以新疆为例

基于对1980-2014年新疆能耗和终端能耗氮排放估算，选取能耗总量、电耗总量、工业能耗量和终端能耗氮排量，研究与新疆区域温度变化指标的关联系数，构建能耗对区域温度变化的胁迫模型。结果表明：（1）城市化高速期能耗和电耗增长显著高于加速期。（2）终端能耗氮排量和氮排放终端能源的结构变化指标1980-2014年均持续增加，终端能源氮排放向综合方向发展，各产业部门氮排放结构变化由工业主力型向多产业部门发展。（3）能耗指标和温度变化指标的关联系数均通过p=0.01水平显著检验，工业能耗总量和城郊温差关联系数略大于能耗总量和电力消耗。（4）工业能源终端消耗量的增加对城郊温差的胁迫关系呈三次多项式的形式增加。

Nitrogen emission change of energy consumption and its stress evaluation on regional temperature: a case study in Xinjiang

Xinjiang is significantly affected by global and regional temperature change in the process of rapid urbanization; energy consumption and nitrogen emission in the area increase progressively. To control nitrogen emission and build a low nitrogen society is the key issue for Xinjiang to achieve sustainable development of energy. Therefore, it is urgent to analyze the relationship between the energy structure and temperature change, urbanization, and to further determine the feasibility of nitrogen emission reduction. The statistical method for fuel combustion based on energy statistics and default emission factors provided by the government's temperature change committee was adopted. Based on the estimation of Xinjiang's energy consumption and nitrogen emission of final energy consumption from 1980 to 2014, the total energy consumption, power consumption, industrial and final energy consumption nitrogen emission were taken as the research objects, and correlation coefficient of regional temperature change was studied and energy consumption stress model of regional temperature change was built. The results show as follows: (1)The total energy consumption and power consumption during the high-speed period of the urbanization has increased more remarkably than that during the acceleration period, the energy consumption structure was dominated by fossil energy and the proportion of oil and natural gas increased; the proportion of energy consumption in the first industry declined, but rose in the third industry, suggesting that the third industry contributed to the economic growth of Xinjiang. (2)Nitrogen emission of final energy consumption of Xinjiang increased by 4.1 times from 1980 to 2014; the final energy nitrogen emissions was developing to the comprehensive diversified structure, nitrogen emission structure in various sectors has been changed from industrial leading type to multiple industry department pattern. (3)The greenhouse gas emissions generated by energy consumption of Xinjiang had a significant effect on the heat island effect; both the correlation coefficient of energy consumption index and temperature index got through the significant test at 0.01 level; the correlation coefficient of industrial energy consumption and suburban temperature was slightly higher than the total energy consumption and power consumption. (4)The correlation of the increase of industrial energy final consumption and suburban temperature difference increased in the form of cubic polynomial curve. Since 1998, the rapid development of the third industry has resulted in the increase of nitrogen emission, which is the main reason for the rising temperature and heat island effect of Xinjiang. The innovation of the research is that two concepts of the elastic index of nitrogen discharge and the structure coefficient of nitrogen emission were put forward to study the relationship between nitrogen emission and economic growth. The research methods and results can provide a reference for nitrogen emission change of energy consumption and its stress evaluation on regional temperature in Xinjiang.