咸海演化的关键问题及其对经济、社会和生态价值的重要启示

本文回顾了Aral Sea(咸海)海平面变化的最新认识,以供社会和经济项目决策者使用。我们提出了咸海生态标准的新认识:由于1960年之前当时的人类活动已经引起了湖泊萎缩,咸海在1960年之前是小到中型湖泊,而不是大型湖泊。对咸海认识的改变可能会使许多基于极端情景的昂贵计划变得更加现实。同时,基于地质、考古、历史和水文研究中所获得的多重数据的综合分析,本次结果认为咸海在过去的2万年内经历了多次突然的海侵和海退。然而,除了现代的原因外,引起这些变化的原因的认识仍然不完整,需要进行专门的调查研究。在这篇论文中,我们针对水位变化、气候变化与咸海盆地来自锡尔河和阿姆河供水变化相结合的研究方法进行了讨论。

The key question of the Aral Sea evolution impor-tant for understanding its economic,social and eco-logical values

The paper reviews the up-to-date knowledge on the changes of the Aral Sea level to make it useful for decision makers in social and economic projects.We propose a new vision of the ecological standard for the Aral Sea:small to medium size lake instead of huge one as it was before 1960,when modern human-induced shrinking started.Change of the vision may turn many expensive initiatives based on extreme scenarios to be more realistic.The conclusion is based on the multiproxy data obtained from geological,archaeological,historiographical and hydrological studies.These results gave a quite reliable scheme of the changes during about 20 thousand-year history of the Aral,which experienced multiple abrupt transgressions and regressions.However,understanding of the reasons for these changes,except for the modern one,is still not complete and requires special investigation.In this paper,we discuss approaches for correlating the water level changes with climate change and variations of the Aral Basin water supply from its feeding-the Svr Darva and Amu Darva rivers.